The Champions League has only determined the two teams that qualify directly for the round of 16 before the final matchday.

22nd Jan, 2026 @ 06:44 am

PORTUGALReal, Liverpool, and PSG all face danger.They dropped out of the Top 8 in the final round of the group stage of Europe's most prestigious tournament.
After 7 rounds, the Champions League has only determined two teams that will automatically qualify for the Round of 16: Arsenal (21 points) and Bayern (18). The remaining 6 tickets, equivalent to the remaining 6 positions in the Top 8, will be decided in the final round. Thirteen teams with 12 to 15 points will compete for these 6 tickets: Real Madrid, Liverpool, Tottenham, PSG, Newcastle, Chelsea, Sporting, Barcelona, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, Atalanta, Inter Milan, Pub88.

d Juventus.

What's about to happen is creating an unprecedented "fierce battle" in the Champions League. Eight of the thirteen teams mentioned have won the title before: Real Madrid, Liverpool, PSG, Chelsea, Barcelona, Manchester City, Inter Milan, and Juventus. In addition, Tottenham and Atletico Madrid also pose a significant challenge, having reached the final a combined four times.

Vinicius and coach Arbeloa celebrate a goal after Real Madrid's 6-1 victory over Monaco in the seventh matchday of the Champions League group stage on January 20th. Photo:Reuters

Real Madrid and Liverpool have the easiest path in the final round, both having 15 points. They also have the advantage of facing Benfica and Qarabag, two opponents of a lower caliber. Even a draw would secure their direct qualification to the Round of 16 thanks to a superior goal difference.

According to the regulations, when teams are tied on points in the group stage, their position will be determined based on the following priority criteria: goal difference, number of goals scored, number of away goals, number of wins, and number of away wins.

TottenhamThey also have the advantage, currently possessing 14 points and only having to face Frankfurt. The German team is currently ranked 33rd out of 36, with only four points after seven matches and no longer having any hope of progressing.

The "fierce battle" becomes complicated with the remaining 10 teams, including PSG, Newcastle, Chelsea, Sporting,BarcaMan City, Atletico, Atalanta (all with 13 points), Inter and Juventus (12). They not only need to win the last match, but also have to score as many goals as possible to compete on tie-breaking criteria. Any small change could send them straight into the round of 16, or drop them into the play-off group to compete for a wildcard spot.

With the same 13 points and a goal difference of +10, the defending champion...PSGNewcastle and I are currently ranked sixth and seventh. But in the final matchday, they will face each other directly in Paris. If either team wins, they will qualify directly for the round of 16. But if they draw, they could both lose their positions and have to play in the play-offs.

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Luis Javier Suarez (right) sealed the 2-1 victory for Sporting against PSG in the seventh matchday of the Champions League group stage on the evening of January 20. Photo:Reuters

ChelseaThey are currently ranked eighth with a goal difference of +6, but things are not easy for them. In the final match, coach Liam Rosenior's team will have to play away at Napoli, an opponent who still has hopes of making it into the Top 24.

Sporting also have to play away at Bilbao, a team still hoping to qualify for the play-offs. Meanwhile, Barca,Man CityAtletico holds a considerable advantage, as they only have to face Copenhagen, Galatasaray, and Bodo/Glimt. Atalanta also has reason to hope as they only have to play away against Union SG, a team that conceded 17 goals in their first seven matches.

InterJuventus and Dortmund are the two weakest teams in the race for a Top 8 finish, with only 12 points each. They must win away at Dortmund and Monaco, and then hope their rivals slip up.

The final 18 matches will all take place on January 28th. Group stage.Champions LeagueOnly eight teams qualify directly for the Round of 16, for the top eight teams. Teams ranked from ninth to 24th must compete in a play-off for a remaining spot.